Workshop on climatic information predictability for reducing tropical agriculture vulnerability

Embu, KENYA, 20-23 février 2012.
Le CRC co-organise, aux côtés du Cerege et du CIRAD, et dans le cadre du projet ANR "PICREVAT", un workshop sur la prévisibilité de l'information climatique pour la réduction de la vulnérabilité de l'agriculture tropicale.
"Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors with respect to climate variability. This is especially true in the tropics and subtropics because of a dependency, more or less pronounced, of national economies to agricultural production, but also because of a relatively limited adaptability towards climatic hazards. Agricultural production depends heavily on the availability of water, and therefore, directly or indirectly, on precipitation. Seasonal climate prediction is a helpful tool to anticipate rainfall deficits, and help define strategies to mitigate the effects of crop failures. The target of the forecasts is usually seasonal rainfall amounts at regional-scale. However, there is a gap between these targets and the local-scale and possibly sub-seasonal information needed by end-users to successfully mitigate the adverse effects linked to climatic variability and to decrease their vulnerability. In order to bridge this gap, it is necessary (i) to better understand the multi-scale interaction between global-scale forcing and the local intra-seasonal variability , (ii) to better evaluate the potential application of the seasonal predictions on crops."

Monday 20 February – Session 1 : Agricultural Production and climate forcing
- Statistical quantification of the influence of climate on agricultural production
- Representation of the climate influence in crop models

Tuesday 21 February – Session 2 : Potential predictability of critical climate variables and crop

- Spatial coherence of climate
- Potential predictability and its sources at seasonal and intra-seasonal scales
- Downscaling of climate information
- Climate forcing at the local-scale and agricultural production

Wednesday 22 February - Session 3 : End users needs and transmission of climatic information
- Determination of climate information relevant from the viewpoint of farmers
- Optimizing the broadcast of seasonal forecasts