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Notre velo clim protagoniste de la chronique " mes histoires de chercheurs" sur Radio Campus Dijon, Vous pouvez écouter ICI l'enregistrement
Monerie P-A, J Robson, B Dong, B Dieppois, B Pohl & N Dunstone () We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16).
Maxime Woringer, Nadège Martiny, Souleymane Porgho, Brice W.Bicaba, Avner Bar-Hen, and Judith E.Mueller
BACKGROUND: Bacterial meningitis causes a high burden of disease in the African meningitis belt, with regular seasonal hyperendemicity and spo-radic short, but intense, localized epidemics during the late dry season occurring at a small spatial scale [i.e., below the district level, in individual health centers (HCs)]. In addition, epidemic waves with larger geographic extent occur every 7–10 y. Although atmospheric dust load is thought to be an essential factor for hyperendemicity, its role for localized epidemics remains hypothetic.
Champagne O, B Pohl, S McKenzie, J-F Buoncristiani, E Bernard, D Joly & F Tolle () The Arctic region has experienced significant warming during the past two decades with major implications on the cryosphere. The causes of Arctic amplification are still an open question within the scientific community, attracting recent interest. The goal of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric circulation on temperature variability in the Atlantic Arctic region at decadal to intra-annual timescales from 1951 to 2014. Daily 20th Century reanalyses geopotential height anomalies at 500hPa were clustered into different weather regimes to assess their contribution to observed temperature variability. The results show that, in winter, 25% of the warming (cooling) in the North Atlantic Ocean (northeastern Canada) is due to temporal decreases of high geopotential anomalies in Greenland.
par Benjamin Pohl, vendredi 28/09 14h Salle de cours CRC