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l'article du mois (octobre 2014)

Phenological model performance under warmer conditions: application to pinot noir in Burgundy

par C Cuccia, B Bois, Y Richard, AK Parker, I Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, C Van Leeuwen et T Castel

J. Int. Sci. Vigne Vin, 48, p 169-178.
hafddjed Aim: The current work aims to assess the performance of two phenological models - a linear model (Grapevine Flowering Véraison model, GFV) and a curvilinear model (Wang and Engel model, WE) - to warmer temperature conditions for the grapevine variety Pinot noir in Burgundy.
Methods and results: Simulations using historical data from the 1973-2005 period were similar between models and consistent with observations. To mimic potential climate warming for 2050 and 2100, 3 °C and 5 °C were added to each daily average temperature of the 1973-2005 dataset. The results showed that the two models simulated similarly the véraison stage of Pinot noir in Burgundy for temperature increases up to 5 °C. However, the simulation by the GFV model was 4.7 days earlier than that by the WE model when 10 °C was added. This difference may reflect the inhibitory effect of high temperatures on plant development incorporated in the equations of the WE model. Finally, both models were tested for three other sites in Europe (Carcassonne, Cagliari and Seville) with quite contrasting climatic conditions. Results obtained showed that both models differed significantly when they were applied at latitudes below 40°N.
Conclusion : In cool-climate grape growing regions and for early grapevine varieties, increased temperatures (up to +5 °C) may advance the date of véraison as predicted by heat summation models but produce little difference in predictions between the simpler GFV model and the WE model.
Significance and impact of the study : Both models (GFV and WE) satisfactorily reproduce the observed véraison dates for Pinot noir in Burgundy. For the range of temperature increases expected in the future for cool temperate areas, a model that uses a curvilinear response to temperature does not improve significantly the phenological predictions compared with a simple model based on a linear response.

Présentation rapide

Le Centre de Recherches de Climatologie (CRC) est une équipe de recherche de l'UMR6282 Biogéosciences (CNRS / Université de Bourgogne). Le CRC travaille sur la détection, l'attribution et la prévision du signal climatique et de ses impacts dans l'actuel et le futur. Ses activités sont centrées autour de la régionalisation du climat observé et simulé.

Le CRC est structuré en deux axes thématiques qui mettent en œuvre des méthodes permettant de passer de l'information large échelle (objet des travaux de l'équipe « Dynamique du Climat ») à une information d'échelle plus fine permettant d'évaluer les impacts (équipe « Impacts Climatiques »). Cette méthodologie relève de la statistique (méthodes statistico-dynamiques sur les sorties de modèles; statistiques spatiales;  désagrégation), de l'analyse spatiale (SIG opérateurs d'analyse spatiale vecteur et raster; interpolation spatiale mécaniste ou statistique), ou de la modélisation numérique du climat (modèles régionaux MM5 et WRF, modèle global Arpege-Climat).

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